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What does it mean to focus on jobs?
If enacted quickly, the President's new Small Business Jobs and Wages tax credit proposal will therefore create fewer (and maybe far fewer) than 165,000 - 297,000 jobs this year. For comparison, remember that the U.S. economy has lost 2.7 million jobs since a year ago, and 7.2 million jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. 297,000 is 4.1% of 7.2 million, so you're talking about a policy change that at best would restore fewer than 1 out of 25 jobs lost since the recession began.
Why you can’t do just the health insurance reforms
Some in the House are floating the idea of splitting up either the House or Senate health bills into component parts and passing them individually. Some may see this as a way to get partial substantive wins. Others may hope the component bills die in the Senate so they can blame Republicans in November. This strategy does not work substantively.
It’s dead.
I wrote yesterday that the bill is not dead until the Speaker says it's dead. I think she in effect did so yesterday. Based on this development I have increased my prediction of collapse to 90%, and I believe the comprehensive bill is dead.
Schrödinger’s health care bill
Like Schrodinger's cat, the health care bill is in a strange place where it is simultaneously alive and dead. I predict that when we can see inside the box of the House Democratic Caucus, there's a 3 in 4 chance we will see that the bill is dead.



